Last month, my fellow columnist Mike Moffatt published a list of the Canadian economic indicators that will influence the election campaign. Allow me to add a few.
Moffatt focused on the data that will make its way into campaign speeches and Twitter attacks. These figures will frame debates and allow voters to judge whether Stephen Harper’s economy is as bad as Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau say it is.
But Statistics Canada’s website will make for a poor crystal ball. If you want to know where Canada’s economy is headed, then you will need to keep an eye on a few U.S. indicators that correlate closely with Canadian exports. As we all know by now, exports are the economy’s only hope. Without a jump in international shipments, the country will continue to languish. Consumers are tapped out. (While the most recent export data from StatsCan showed 6.3% growth in June 2015, the export situation is more complex, as we’ll see.)
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